Intel vs. AMD: The CPU Landscape in 2009
Intel's new Nehalem processor will be closely followed by AMD's 45nm CPUs. Here's how the CPU will further evolve in the coming year, and what choices you'll face.by Loyd Case
Choosing a processor is an exercise in predicting the future. Given the rapid pace of technology, you'd ideally like a CPU—and the other parts of the system—to last a few years. Choose a CPU that's too new and you end up on the pricey, bleeding edge of the envelope. Choose one that's been around too long and you may find yourself struggling to run new software. Whether you're buying a PC, making an upgrade, or building a new system from scratch, you'll face the same problems.
There are also different manufacturers and product lines to consider, though when it comes to the processor game, Intel has been firing on all cylinders while AMD has been playing catch-up. The coming year looks to be more of the same. Both companies are poised to introduce new product lines. Intel is moving forward with a substantially new microarchitecture, whereas AMD is just now making the move to the 45nm manufacturing process, which Intel has been using for nearly a year. The smaller architecture allows CPU manufacturers to build processors that use lower power and run at higher clock speeds, as well as cram more transistors on a CPU die.
Still, moving to 45nm should make AMD somewhat more competitive, at least in the midrange and low-end desktop market. AMD's Phenom processor line had some advantage in certain types of servers, particularly those applications that benefit from low latency memory access. Yet Intel's latest CPU, the Core i7 series, may eliminate or reduce those advantages.
Let's cut through the mystery and take a look at the upcoming year in CPUs.
Intel Desktops: Not Just Nehalem
Intel is intensely focused on getting out its new architecture, code-named Nehalem but officially called the Intel Core i7. It will take some time for Nehalem to percolate throughout the company's product line, however, so the older 45nm Core 2 products will continue to play leading roles through the first half of 2009.
One reason for the slow rollout is that early Nehalem desktop chips are all quad-core CPUs. Sure, single-core processors have pretty much faded from the scene, but dual-core is still going strong. In September 2008, Intel even boosted the dual-core line, shipping the 3.3-GHz Core 2 Duo E8600. On the other hand, there aren't likely to be a lot of additional shifts in the Core 2 lineup. And entry-level quad-core CPUs, like the Core 2 Quad Q8200 and Q9300, won't be replaced by Nehalem CPUs in the near future.
Of course, Nehalem is the big news, and Intel initially launched three new CPUs: the 2.66-GHz Core i7-920, the 2.93-GHz Core i7-940, and the high-end Core i7-965 Extreme, which clocks in at 3.2 GHz. These new CPUs are substantially improved over the original Core 2 architecture. The most significant enhancements include
- An integrated, on-die memory controller, supporting up to three channels of DDR3 memory. Having the controller on-die improves memory latency, while triple channel access to DDR3 offers massive memory bandwidth.
- Four cores on a single die (previous Intel quad-core CPUs consisted of two dual-core dies in a single package). This improves core-to-core communication when compared with the dual-die configuration in earlier Intel quad-core processors.
- A new system bus, QPI (QuickPath Interconnect), to facilitate all that bandwidth.
- The return of Hyper-Threading, Intel's version of simultaneous multithreading, allowing each core to run two threads for a total of eight threads. This can improve multitasking and increase performance in multithreaded apps.
- A new chipset, the X58, tuned for high-end, enthusiast users.
- A new, 1,366-pin socket called Socket B, or LGA1366; Core i7 is not compatible with the earlier LGA775 socket used in the Core 2 Duo and Core 2 Quad processors. All those extra pins are needed for the on-die memory controller.
Why does Nehalem require a new socket? It's simple: The memory controller is now embedded in the CPU die, so all those pins for moving memory that used to be part of the old MCH (memory controller hub) now need to be integrated into the CPU socket.
Initial pricing for Core i7 CPUs is pretty aggressive; the 2.66-GHz i7-920 CPU is priced at just $284 in volume quantities. Still, Core i7 will be found mostly in high-end systems, since the initial motherboards will likely be fairly pricey—in the neighborhood of $300 or more. In the second half of the year, however, Intel is prepping mainstream CPUs and chipsets using the new architecture, along with the mainstream Havendale (dual-core) and Lynnfield (quad-core) processors.
Havendale will feature Intel's first attempt at integrating a graphics core on the CPU, though it's not clear at this point whether Havendale's graphics core will actually be on the same die as the CPU or on a second die built into the processor package. The Ibex Peak chipset will integrate the display controller, separating display and graphics into different chips. (Ibex Peak is Intel's next-gen chipset, to go with its new processors. More on that later.)
Lynnfield will be quad-core and will work with Ibex Peak, too, but it won't feature graphics integrated into the CPU. This creates an interesting dichotomy: Intel won't integrate graphics on mainstream desktop systems with quad-core CPUs. In other words, a quad-core Ibex Peak system will require a discrete graphics card, while a dual-core system based on that chipset may have integrated graphics.
Intel Goes Mobile: Laptops and Netbooks
Mobile systems continue to evolve at a faster rate than their desktop brethren, but most of the advancements are restricted to new features like fingerprint readers, built-in webcams, and other add-on features. The underlying platforms still trail those of the desktop in terms of sheer performance, though that gap is closing.
For example, Intel only recently began shipping quad-core mobile processors based on the earlier Penryn technology, more than a year after the first desktop quad-core CPUs strolled onto the scene. The four-core Clarksfield CPU, based on the Nehalem architecture, should arrive sometime in the second half of 2009. At least one of those parts should be a mainstream CPU, running on larger laptops (likely with 17-inch screens). A dual-core CPU based on Nehalem, code-named Auburndale, will also ship in the second half. Those will all run on a mobile version of the Ibex Peak chipset.
By the same token, the current Montevina and the even older Santa Rosa platforms will continue to be available, albeit pushed into lower-end segments.
On the ultramobile and netbook side, Intel will continue to push its low-power Atom processor. Intel recently launched the dual-core Atom 330, which consumes just 8W of power. The 330 is really two single-core Atoms built into a single package. Intel is planning revisions for later in 2009, prepping Pineville—the successor to the current Atom CPU. Pineville will integrate graphics and a memory controller onto the CPU, effectively turning it into a system-on-a-chip (SoC).
AMD's 45nm Push
AMD recently announced that the company is shedding its manufacturing operation, transferring its manufacturing assets to a new company. This will allow AMD to focus on design and engineering.
A large part of that design effort is a move to the 45nm manufacturing process. AMD's CPUs have been hobbled by the company's reliance on the older 65nm process, which has forced the company to stay out of the high-end, high-margin segment of the processor business. To its credit, AMD has focused on lowering power consumption, offering a complete line of 45W dual-core and 65W quad-core CPUs.
By late 2008, the company will have begun shipping its first set of 45nm quad-core CPUs based on the Phenom architecture. Code-named Shanghai, the new CPU will offer 6MB of L3 cache (up from 2MB) and HyperTransport 3 support. However, Shanghai will still have an embedded DDR2 memory controller, meaning that it will trail Intel in overall memory bandwidth.
Beyond this year, the company is prepping a 6-core CPU dubbed Istanbul, which is slated for a late 2009 launch. It's unlikely that there will be substantial changes to the architecture. The next new architecture for AMD is Magny Cours, which will have up to 12 cores and finally incorporate a DDR3 memory controller. A 6-core version, code-named Sao Paulo, will arrive on the scene about the same time, in early 2010.
Intel, on the other hand, likes to brag about its "tick-tock" development cycle. The phrase refers to the way Intel designs and transitions new architectures. When Intel develops a manufacturing process—such as its current 45nm technology—it brings an existing architecture to the new process. So Penryn, Intel's first 45nm CPU, was an evolutionary improvement over the original Core 2. That's the "tick." The "tock" is when Intel designs and builds a new CPU architecture on the current manufacturing process. Hence all the Nehalem variants will be built using the existing 45nm process.
In 2009, Intel will start to bring up its next-generation 32nm process, enabling it to pack even more transistors onto the same die size or shrink the CPU considerably. The 32nm process should also reduce power consumption and, in theory, enable higher clock speeds. The first processor built on 32nm will be Westmere and will be based on Nehalem.
Westmere may incorporate up to six cores on a single die. Intel has also announced that six new instructions designed to accelerate AES encryption/decryption algorithms will be part of the instruction set.
The true next generation for Intel isn't likely to hit the street until later in 2009 and will also be built on 32nm. That CPU is code-named Sandy Bridge. There's not a lot known about Sandy Bridge yet, but Intel is planning on integrating Advanced Vector Extensions, a new set of extensions to SSE that may considerably enhance the CPU's floating-point performance.
Platform Evolution
Let's not forget that the CPU is only one part of the overall platform puzzle. As we've noted, Intel is shipping the X58 chipset to go along with the Core i7 processor. Later in the year, the Ibex Peak chipset will show up.
What's interesting is the convergence between CPU and platform—that is to say, the core logic and motherboard. With Core i7, Intel has a CPU with an integrated memory controller, finally catching up to AMD, which has offered CPUs with on-die memory controllers for several years now. Havendale, the late 2009 dual-core version of Nehalem, will also integrate a graphics core. About the only things left for the motherboard are power regulation, expansion slots, and I/O.
Of course, all of those are vital ingredients to any PC. New I/O architectures are also emerging, and it's likely we'll see SuperSpeed USB 3.0, which can move data at speeds up to 4.8 gigabits per second, and next-generation SATA I/O, which pumps peak disk speeds to 6 gigabits per second—just in time for the next generation of solid-state drives. In many systems now, I/O is a bigger bottleneck than the CPU, as anyone whose system has come to a crawl when copying data from a USB flash memory stick will attest. The platform designers need to work on those issues, and faster, multitasking I/O will help as much as faster CPU performance.
Making the Right CPU Choice
As we've seen, there's a host of new processors arriving on the market, at a variety of performance and power levels, incorporating cool new technologies such as triple-channel memory, on-die memory controllers, and integrated graphics cores. Ultimately, choosing the right CPU really depends on your needs. Issues to consider include performance, power usage, mobility, and longevity.
It's that longevity item that makes choosing a CPU most difficult. No one wants to be saddled with a product that can't run next year's applications. On the Intel front, the news is mostly good. While a Core i7 may be the fastest desktop CPU on the planet, last year's Core 2 processors are still highly capable and cost-effective.
On the AMD front, the only current advantage the company has is price, and even that margin is fairly slim. Sure, the new 45nm line looks promising, but it's unlikely that AMD can keep up with Intel's relentless product push. For the time being, AMD will be the lower-cost provider.
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